It seems that the civil war in Yemen has suddenly spun out of control and is well on its way towards becoming a genuine regional war. What started as a legitimate movement by the Houthis towards achieving basic rights such as representation and development for the regions in which they live has now put them on the warpath with a major regional power, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The Saudi bombing of Yemen comes at a time of change for the Wahhabi Kingdom. Saudi Arabia, which ranks seventh from the bottom in human rights is a rigid system that is not used to change. With a new King on the throne, the oil prices plummeting, a Nuclear deal with Iran almost done and Iran claiming more clout by the day, the self-proclaimed defender of the Sunnis in the world has to step up its game to counter Iranian influence on its Southern border.
The war in Yemen before Saudi intervention was a one-sided affair of Houthis claiming one victory after the other, all the way to the presidential palace, facilitated by their alliance with Saleh, the ousted former Yemeni president who is eyeing a comeback. Saleh, who had been bankrolled by Saudi, was ousted during the Arab spring but still has influence in the Yemeni military. This resulted in Sanaa being taken by the Houthis with barely any fighting.
Seeing the enemy at its doorstep and with all the above factors aligned, Saudi decided to bomb the Houthis to prevent them from further solidifying their hold on the country.
Past experience with bombing of disorganized forces in Iraq and Syria has shown that this will not be enough to stop the Houthis.
In Syria, Bashar has been bombing the rebels for multiple years in the most inhumane way – without ground forces, the bombing runs are not enough to capture cities and towns.
Same with the US bombing of IS – the bombs slowed down the IS advance but it was the Kurdish fighters and the Iraq army (along with local militias) that managed to turn the tide eventually, at a heavy human cost.
Saudi has drawn a line in the sand with the bombs and is now invested in this war more directly than it has been in recent time, where most of its fighting was done by proxy.
If the next step is to enter Yemen on the ground, and by doing that Saudi will be giving all its regional enemies legitimate targets to shoot at – something that a lot of enemies have been longing for.
It is time for the Saudi army, who is one of the biggest defense spenders in the world over the past four years, to earn its spurs.
Will Saudi Arabia be able to prove that it is the defender of Sunni Islam both to its own people and to the world, or will Yemen be Saudi’s Vietnam in the same way that Yemen was Egypt’s Vietnam in the sixties?